The price of WTI crude oil is settling at $61.99 down $4.96 or 7.40%.

The price of crude oil was it this week on the back of the tariff news and expectations of slower global growth, and ​the OPEC+ alliance, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, that announced a larger-than-expected increase in oil production. Starting in May 2025, the group will boost output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd), effectively implementing three months’ worth of planned increases in a single month.

For the trading week, the price of crude oil fell -2.19%. That is its worst week cents a 12.72% decline during the week of March 13, 2023.

The EURUSD moved into a topside range from back in September/October 2024 yesterday between 1.1001 and 1.1213, and has increased the momentum in trading today. The high price extended to 1.1098 just short of 1.1100 natural resistance. Since then, the price has moved lower and back below the low of the swing area at 1.1001. The current price is at 1.0989. The low reached 1.0960.

Technically if the price can now stay below the “Red Box” and the swing area at the low of that box from 1.1001 to 1.10145, the sellers are “in play” with hope. Move back above, and the sellers could lose interest quickly and buy back – especially going into a weekend.

On the downside, the next target is

• 1.0936 – 1.0954 (swing area on the chart above)
• 1.08586 (100 hour moving average)

Move below each give the sellers more confidence and gives the buyers cause for pause.

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Finance Magnates CY Limited

The USDCHF continues to trade under pressure, sitting near the lower end of the consolidation range that defined price action between August and October 2024 (see red box on the chart). The recent low held within that range, and the current price hovers around 0.8510, keeping sellers in control.

For the downside bias to shift, buyers need to push the price back above 0.8557—a key resistance level that now serves as a near-term risk-defining level for shorts. A move above would increase bullish momentum and open the door to further upside.

If bullish momentum does build, focus will shift to the 0.86078–0.8619 zone. This area acted as both support and resistance in the past and turned into a ceiling again after yesterday’s sharp drop.

Until 0.8557 is broken to the upside, sellers remain firmly in control. A failure to reclaim that level keeps the risk tilted toward a retest of the 2024 lows within the lower end of the consolidation range.

Key Support Levels:

Key Resistance Levels:

• 0.85309 (near-term support; staying below favors sellers)

• 0.8557 (key barrier to shift near-term bias)

• 0.86078–0.8619 (major resistance zone; prior floor now acting as ceiling)

• 0.8669 (intermediate resistance above the zone)

Two days after Liberation Day is not looking good for the markets. The USD fell yesterday with the CHF and the JPY leading the way. The dollar is mixed today as the flow of funds start to go out of AUD and NZD as China retaliates with their own 34% rise in tariffs. The AUDUSD is down -3.54%. The NZDUSD is down -2.58% in a morning snapshot.

On the downside the USD is down another 1.06% vs the CHF and -0.66% vs the JPY. For the EURUSD it is up 0.17% (lower USD), while the GBPUSD is down -0.63% (higher USD).

So price action is all over the place to start the day. In the video above, I take a look at the 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD. What levels are in play, what targets and risk levels should you watch and why.

By the way, the US jobs report will be released at 8:30 AM ET. What is expected?

• Consensus estimate +135K
• Estimate range +50K to +185K
• February was +151K
• Private consensus +135K versus +151K prior
• Unemployment rate consensus estimate 4.1% versus 4.1% prior
• Prior unrounded unemployment rate 4.1396%
• Prior participation rate 62.4%
• Prior underemployment U6 8.0%
• Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.9% versus +4.0% prior
• Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% versus +0.3% prior
• Avg weekly hours exp 34.2 versus 34.1 prior

Numbers released so far this month:

• ADP report +155K versus +84K prior
• ISM services employment 46.2 vs 53.9 prior
• ISM manufacturing employment 44.7 vs 47.6 prior
• Challenger job cuts 275.2k vs 172.0k prior
• Philly employment +19.7 vs +5.3 prior
• Empire employment -4.1 vs -3.6 prior
• Initial jobless claims survey week 225K vs 219K prior

The strongest argument for a good number in March is that February jobs (particularly in leisure & hospitality) were depressed by poor weather. Canada will also release their jobs report at the bottom of the hour. I’m not sure that the market really cares about these reports given the changes over the last few days.

“By the way Part II”, Fed’s Powell will have the opportunity to add his two-cents in regard to the economics of the tariffs. Yesterday Fed Jefferson kinda kicked the can down the road, not being overly reactionary to what was a rout in the markets. Who is that looking over Powell’s shoulder.

This is seeing the overall risk mood slide back lower as we look towards US trading later. Trump’s tariffs announcement two days ago is just the start of all this uncertainty. The retaliations and negotiations are all part of what markets have to deal with next and China’s response is one of the bigger ones. And it looks like they’re choosing to go blow for blow, at least for now. There’s still about a week before the tariffs officially go into effect.

S&P 500 futures have now tumbled down by 1.5% and 10-year yields in the US have tripped to 3.90%, down 15 bps on the day.

In turn, USD/JPY has also slid from 146.30 to 145.80 at the moment as risk sentiment takes another blow ahead of US trading later.